About Thoughtca.st

Understanding Australian Highlander performance statistics and methodology

What is Thoughtca.st?

Thoughtca.st is a statistical analysis platform for Australian Highlander, a 60 card singleton Magic: The Gathering format. We track deck performance data and provide insights into how individual cards contribute to competitive success.

Our platform analyses thousands of deck results to help players make informed decisions about card choices, particularly focusing on pointed cards that have restrictions in the format.

Understanding Delta Values

The
Delta
value represents how much a card improves or hurts a deck's win rate compared to the format average.

How Delta is Calculated:

  1. We calculate the win rate of all decks containing a specific card
  2. We calculate the overall win rate across all decks in our dataset
  3. Delta = Card Win Rate - Overall Win Rate

Example Delta Display:

All Time+5.18%±1.13%1138/2096 decks

This shows Lightning Bolt has a +5.18% delta with a CI of 1.13%, appearing in 1138 decks out of 2096 that fit the date range.

Confidence Intervals

We use 80% confidence intervals to provide a range of likely values for each card's true performance impact.

Why 80% Confidence?

We chose 80% confidence intervals (rather than the more common 95%) due to small sample sizes. This level balances providing (hopefully) useful insights while trying to avoid uselessly wide intervals that occur with higher confidence levels in limited data scenarios.

How to Interpret Confidence Intervals:

Narrow intervals: We have more confidence in the delta value (larger sample size)
Wide intervals: Less certainty in the exact value (smaller sample size or high variance)
Interval crosses zero: The card's impact may not be statistically significant

Statistical Methodology

Our Calculations Use:

  • Sample Mean: Average win rate for decks containing the card
  • Standard Error: Measures uncertainty based on sample size and variance
  • T-Distribution: Accounts for smaller sample sizes with appropriate degrees of freedom
  • 80% Confidence Level: Uses t-critical value for 80% confidence interval

Formula: CI = Sample Mean ± (t-critical × Standard Error)

Data Sources & Updates

Our deck data is scraped from the 7PointEventResults Moxfield account, with many thanks to Graham King (and other contributors) for their efforts in uploading and maintaining this important repository of decklists. This website is built on top of their hard work.

Points List Source:

We automatically sync with the Australian Highlander points list maintained at github.com/Fryyyyy/decklist

Contributors:

Main contributor: Michael Leslie

If you'd like to help contribute, come check out the repository at github.com/wildfire111/7pview